Report on Buffett Indicator (3rd Quarter, 2023)

This page demonstrates the updated graph and table of the Buffett Indicator of the US total stock markets. Last week, the latest US GDP data was published. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.9%, and nominal GDP increased at 8.5%. The data indicates that the US economy was in good shape, although inflation remained strong. On the other hand, the Wilshire 5000 decreased at a quarterly rate of 6.6%. Thus, the Buffett Indicator increased from 1.209 to 1.241 during the 3rd quarter of 2023. Now, the FED seems terminating its monetary policy. The Buffett Indicator might make an upward turn in the coming months.

Year	Quarter	Nominal GDP (red, left scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Quarterly mean (blue, right scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Fitted value (red, right scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Q.mean÷F.value
2021	1st	22,600	192.7	123.8	1.557
	2nd	23,292	207.9	130.8	1.589
	3rd	23,829	219.3	136.4	1.608
	4th	24,655	228.2	145.3	1.571
2022	1st	25,029	219.6	149.3	1.470
	2nd	25,544	201.2	155.0	1.299
	3rd	25,995	196.5	160.1	1.227
	4th	26,408	190.8	164.8	1.157
2023	1st	26,814	199.2	169.5	1.175
	2nd	27,063	208.5	172.4	1.209
	3rd	27,624	222.3	179.1	1.241
	October	N/A	212.3	N/A	N/A