Report on Buffett Indicator (2nd Quarter, 2025)

New US GDP data has been recently published. US nominal GDP grew by 1.2% from the 1st quarter of 2025, and US real GDP also grew by 3.0% from the previous quarter. It could signal a recession. At the same time, the Wilshire 5000 index fell by 3.2% for the same period. As a result, the Buffett Indicator (the right-most column of the table below) decreased by 0.069. This drop reflected uncertainties caused by US President Trump. After the US presidential election last year, the Buffett indicator has steadily decreased by 6.2%.

This site has uploaded a new paper (https://has4er.tokyo/us-site/us_buffett_indicator_05012025). Please take a look.

Year	Quarter	Nominal GDP (red, left scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Quarterly mean (blue, right scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Fitted value (red, right scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Q.mean÷F.value
2021	1st	22,657	40,525	27,258	1.487
	2nd	23,369	43,581	28,463	1.531
	3rd	23,922	45,026	29,409	1.558
	4th	24,777	47,519	30,889	1.539
2022	1st	25,215	45,565	31,655	1.439
	2nd	25,806	41,627	32,696	1.273
	3rd	26,272	40,448	33,525	1.205
	4th	26,734	39,099	34,352	1.138
2023	1st	27,164	40,640	35,127	1.157
	2nd	27,454	42,370	35,652	1.188
	3rd	27,968	44,978	36,588	1.229
	4th	28,297	44,870	37,192	1.206
2024	1st	28,624	50,233	37,794	1.329
	2nd	29,017	51,877	38,521	1.347
	3rd	29,375	54,340	39,187	1.387
	4th	29,724	58,277	39,839	1.463
2025	1st	29,962	58,061	40,286	1.441
	2nd	30,331	56,231	40,982	1.372