Updated Graph of Buffett Indicator (4th quarter, 2023)

The quarterly mean of the Wilshire 5000 index was $ 222.5 billion for the 4th quarter of 2023 which was the same level as the 3rd quarter. Probably, the nominal GDP of the 4th quarter would increase by a couple of percentages from the 3rd quarter. If that is the case, the quarterly mean would be about 20 percent above the fitted value which is estimated by the nominal GDP.

Year	Quarter	Nominal GDP (red, left scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Quarterly mean (blue, right scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Fitted value (red, right scasle)	Wilshire5000 Index Q.mean÷F.value
2021	1st	22,600	192.7	123.7	1.557
	2nd	23,292	207.9	130.8	1.589
	3rd	23,829	219.3	136.4	1.608
	4th	24,655	228.2	145.3	1.571
2022	1st	25,029	219.6	149.3	1.470
	2nd	25,544	201.2	155.0	1.299
	3rd	25,995	196.5	160.1	1.227
	4th	26,408	190.8	164.8	1.157
2023	1st	26,814	199.2	169.5	1.175
	2nd	27,063	208.5	172.4	1.209
	3rd	27,610	222.2	178.9	1.242
	4th	N/A	222.5	N/A	N/A