Updated Graph of Buffett Indicator (1st quarter, 2024)

This page shows the updated graph of the Buffett Indicator up to the first quarter of 2024. The stock price index is now changed to the Wilshire 5000 Price Index from the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Capitalization. The difference is dividends; the former does not include dividends but the latter does include.

The Buffett Indicator (the left-most column of the table below) peaked in the third quarter of 2021. Since the index went down until the last quarter of 2023. However, the Price index showed a large upswing in the first quarter of 2024. The site manager expects the Buffett Indicator to jump up in the first quarter of 2024.

Year	Quarter	Nominal GDP (red, left scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Quarterly mean (blue, right scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Fitted value (red, right scasle)	Wilshire5000 Index Q.mean÷F.value
2021	1st	22,600	40,525	26,467	1.531
	2nd	23,292	43,581	27,594	1.579
	3rd	23,829	45,026	28,476	1.609
	4th	24,655	47,519	29,849	1.592
2022	1st	25,029	45,565	30,478	1.495
	2nd	25,544	41,627	31,348	1.328
	3rd	25,995	40,448	32,115	1.259
	4th	26,408	39,099	32,823	1.191
2023	1st	26,814	40,640	33,522	1.212
	2nd	27,063	42,370	33,964	1.248
	3rd	27,610	44,978	34,906	1.289
	4th	27.957	44,870	35,514	1.263
2024	1st	N/A	50,233	N/A	N/A