Report on Buffett Indicator (1st Quarter, 2024)

New GDP data of the US has been published, recently. US nominal GDP grew by 1.2% from the 4th quarter of 2023, but the Wilshire 5000 index rose by 12% for the same period. As a result, the Buffett Indicator (the right-most column of the table below) increased by 0.128. The indicator reached the highest level since the 1st quarter of 2022. Now, the indicator may flush a yellow signal about the stock markets.

Year	Quarter	Nominal GDP (red, left scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Quarterly mean (blue, right scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Fitted value (red, right scasle)	Wilshire5000 Index Q.mean÷F.value
2021	1st	22,600	40,525	26,586	1.524
	2nd	23,292	43,581	27,720	1.571
	3rd	23,829	45,026	28,609	1.602
	4th	24,655	47,519	29,991	1.584
2022	1st	25,029	45,565	30,624	1.488
	2nd	25,544	41,627	31,500	1.321
	3rd	25,995	40,448	32,272	1.253
	4th	26,408	39,099	32,986	1.185
2023	1st	26,814	40,640	33,689	1.206
	2nd	27,063	42,370	34,123	1.242
	3rd	27,610	44,978	35,083	1.282
	4th	27.957	44,870	35,695	1.257
2024	1st	28,284	50,233	36,275	1.385
	(April)	N/A	51,366	N/A	N/A