Report on Buffett Indicator (3rd Quarter, 2024)

New US GDP data has been recently published. US nominal GDP grew by 1.1% from the 2nd quarter of 2024, but the Wilshire 5000 index rose by 4.7% for the same period. As a result, the Buffett Indicator (the right-most column of the table below) increased by 0.043. The indicator not only increased from the previous quarter but also increased in pace. The US economy was showing a sign of a slowdown, but the US stock markets were speeding up.

Year	Quarter	Nominal GDP (red, left scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Quarterly mean (blue, right scale)	Wilshire5000 Index Fitted value (red, right scasle)	Wilshire5000 Index Q.mean÷F.value
2021	1st	22,657	40,525	26,867	1.508
	2nd	23,369	43,581	28,047	1.554
	3rd	23,922	45,026	28,974	1.582
	4th	24,777	47,519	30,422	1.562
2022	1st	25,215	45,565	31,173	1.462
	2nd	25,806	41,627	32,191	1.293
	3rd	26,272	40,448	33,002	1.225
	4th	26,734	39,099	33,812	1.156
2023	1st	27,146	40,640	34,570	1.176
	2nd	27,454	42,370	35,082	1.208
	3rd	27,968	44,978	35,998	1.249
	4th	28,297	44,870	36,588	1.226
2024	1st	28,624	50,233	37,177	1.351
	2nd	29,017	51,877	37,888	1.369
	3rd	29,350	54,340	38,493	1.412