Nowcast of US GDP (2025Q4)

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This page discusses the nowcast of US GDP for the 4th quarter of 2025. Because the BEA releases the latest GDP data one month after the quarter ends, the site shows its predicted value based on the empirical Buffett indicator, whose quarterly means exhibit “well-behaved” dynamics. The observed values of the empirical Buffett indicator and GDP for 2025Q3 are 1.868 and 31.095, respectively. Then, the predicted value of the indicator for 2025Q4 is 1.867. The observed value of the Wilshire 5000 index for 2025Q4 is 66.582, up from 63.253 for 2025Q3. The corresponding GDP is 32.699, which is very high. That is likely because the index is too high.

Based on past data, the current level of the Wilshire 5000 index should be too high relative to US GDP.

See the page (https://has4er.tokyo/us-site/us_buffett_indicator_05012025) for details.