Review of US Buffett Indicator (2025 Q4)

This page discusses the US (empirical) Buffett indicator. Due to the shutdown of the US Government last fall, the GDP data was finally released this week. This page reviews the US Buffett indicator and predicts the Wilshire 5000 index for 2026 Q1. The empirical Buffett indicator is now just below its long-term equilibrium, which may indicate its upper limit. The Wilshire 5000 index exceeds its mean across 10,000 simulations for 2026Q1.

The empirical Buffett indicator is now close to its long-term equilibrium. Empirically, the long-term equilibrium may serve as the upper limit for the indicator, and the indicator now tends to move slowly. The Wilshire 5000 index exceeds its long-term equilibrium level, though not by much. These observations suggest that the index is now at its equilibrium level and unlikely to rise significantly further.

See the page (https://has4er.tokyo/us-site/us_buffett_indicator_05012025) for details.